# Iowa



## Desk Jockey (Aug 19, 2005)

It looks as though the Huckabee has won with 31% of the delegates & 41% of the precincts reporting. Romney is second with number in the low to mid 20s.

While on the other side of the aisle, it's still a three-way between Clinton, Obama & Edwards.

Didn't see that coming 6 months ago.

Edit: Obama's projected to win with 35% at 71% reporting. A southern baptist preacher and a Kenyan-American.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Now if all of them would just walk into a certain Iowa cornfield by a baseball field.


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## Desk Jockey (Aug 19, 2005)

I'm just happy that this marks the beginning of the end of the season.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

Desk Jockey said:


> ... it's still a three-way between Clinton, Obama & Edwards.


NEVER say that again. I am going to need extensive therapy for the mental picture that gave me!


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

Kav said:


> Now if all of them would just walk into a certain Iowa cornfield by a baseball field.


Amen to that...

The movie was shot not more than a few counties away from my home town. They still see a huge number of visitors each year, mostly from Japan 

Granted it's just IA, but this is a going to be a wild election.

Between Obama and Huck I think I'm going to puke!

-spence


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## marlinspike (Jun 4, 2007)

Am I the only one that thinks the predictive value of the Iowa caucus and NH primary will be limited this time, at least as far as dems are concerned? It's fine not to like Obama for legitimate reasons (I know I have my reason not to vote for him), but there are reasons in this country where he won't get votes for a very illegitimate reason. I don't think anything will be in place until Super Tuesday.


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## TMMKC (Aug 2, 2007)

I will eat my words if Huckabee and Obama end up with the nominations from their respective parties. It was underwhelming to say the least. Considering how the Evangelicals have manhandled the GOP, and how well Huck pandered to them, I am nominally less surprised he got the nod than Obama. My money was on Edwards.

Too bad I now am beginning to think the best person for the job is otherwise engaged...as mayor of New York!


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## jackmccullough (May 10, 2006)

I'm encouraged by the results, at least on the Democratic side. Of the big three, the most conservative candidate finished third, so the voice for progressive change is still there. I also think that a lot of Obama voters are progressive voters, but they may be misinformed on how liberal/progressive their candidate really is. 

On the R side there seems to be no sign of the McCain surge, since he did finish behind the semi-comatose Fred Thompson. Still, as bad as the rest of the candidates are, judged by the standards of Republican Party, I still think the odds favor McCain by the process of elimination.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

jackmccullough said:


> Of the big three, the most conservative candidate finished third, so the voice for progressive change is still there.


Is Ron Paul the voice for progressive change?


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

I'm still waiting to hear where exactly it is we are 'progressing' to. Hilary alone has over 150 CORPORATE contributors, and I dare say they ain't Ben and Jerry's icecream.


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## jackmccullough (May 10, 2006)

I guess I should have been clearer: Clinton, the most conservative Democratic candidate, finished third. Since she's too conservative for me, I'm glad that she didn't finish first or second.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

jackmccullough said:


> I guess I should have been clearer: Clinton, the most conservative Democratic candidate, finished third. Since she's too conservative for me, I'm glad that she didn't finish first or second.


No Jack, you were clear. I attempted, what some might call, a joke. I guess *I* should have been more clear. I will alert the reader to an impending attempt at humour in the future.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Ron Paul is an interesting man no doubt. I would love to see him chat with Ralph Nader on issues. Lieberman needs to formally come out of the political closet as a republican and stop crossdressing. And in some remote castle, with high energy use usually associated with marijuana production Al Gore lies in repose, probably waiting for 2012 when somebody shouts " It's alive! It's alive!" Obama has transfused BlingBling into the political arena with all the qualifications of a rap star applying to conduct Beethoven's Missa Solemnis. God have mercy on us all.


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## Jolly Roger (Apr 26, 2007)

TMMKC said:


> I will eat my words if Huckabee and Obama end up with the nominations from their respective parties. It was underwhelming to say the least. Considering how the Evangelicals have manhandled the GOP, and how well Huck pandered to them, I am nominally less surprised he got the nod than Obama.


Huckabee has no appeal, except to that segment of the population that should correctly be called the Religious Left. Anyone who's heard the way Rush Limbaugh has been steadily torpedoing him for weeks will know that he won't fare too well after Iowa, where he's sunk all of his eggs into one basket.

He's got very little money to carry on, and very little support outside Iowa.

The big surprise for me tonight was Frederick of Hollywood. I thought he was done, but I guess there are still a few geriatric Law and Order fans who ventured out of the nursing homes to cast a vote for the former lobbyist/part-time senator.

As for my man, he didn't do too badly. He was hot on the heels of the very close race for third, and his actual votes exceeded the polling expectations by over 34%.

Also, looking at the county-by-county breakdown, only three Republican candidates actually won a county majority: Huckabee (obviously), Romney (obviously), and Paul.

And crushing Benito Giuliani was pretty sweet.

Onward to New Hampshire!


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## JDC (Dec 2, 2006)

Jolly Roger said:


> And crushing Benito Giuliani was pretty sweet.


That was my personal great news of the day. Bush's fearapalooza isn't flying any more, even in the capital of Security Soccer Mom, USA.


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## jpeirpont (Mar 16, 2004)

I have not followed the Repubs at all this primary. I am happy Obama won, I am warming to him. I wonder how much momentum this endows him with.


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## radix023 (May 3, 2007)

Kav said:


> I'm still waiting to hear where exactly it is we are 'progressing' to. Hilary alone has over 150 CORPORATE contributors, and I dare say they ain't Ben and Jerry's icecream.


After preaching to everyone about CEOs making too much money, Ben and Jerry sold their company to Unilever years ago. So actually, Ben and Jerry's icecream those 150 corporate contributors ARE.

Don't forget that in 1992 Bill Clinton didn't come first in a state primary until Georgia.


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## JRR (Feb 11, 2006)

Jolly Roger said:


> And crushing Benito Giuliani was pretty sweet.
> 
> Onward to New Hampshire!


Rudy didn't even try. How is that crushing??


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## JRR (Feb 11, 2006)

FrankDC said:


> That was my personal great news of the day. Bush's fearapalooza isn't flying any more, even in the capital of Security Soccer Mom, USA.


IA's Republican caucus goers aren't really soccer moms. Way too religious...

Huck won because he sewed up the evangelical vote.


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## eagle2250 (Mar 24, 2006)

Desk Jockey said:


> While on the other side of the aisle, it's still a three-way between Clinton, Obama & Edwards.





Wayfarer said:


> NEVER say that again. I am going to need extensive therapy for the mental picture that gave me!


ROFALOL! Wayfarer, you are a sick and twisted puppy but, arguably lovable...thanks for the day's first good laugh!


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## agnash (Jul 24, 2006)

*Representative States*

Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire are really representative of the demographics of the nation as a whole. If either nomination is sewn up by voters in those two states, I will be extraordinarily disapointed in the process. I do believe that this year, the later primaries will actually matter, perhaps even those beyond Super Tuesday. FYI, by my semi-sceintific calcualtion the six states that best match the overall racial demographics of the nation are, in descending order: Illinois, New jersey, Florida, New York, Connecticut (admittedly a surprise to me), and Virginia.

P.S. It was nice to see Rudy come in last in Iowa. Now, if he can only repeat that performance a few more times.


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## Acct2000 (Sep 24, 2005)

Anyone who can be pushed aside by Monica Lewinsky will have trouble asserting herself.


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## Rossini (Oct 7, 2007)

jackmccullough said:


> I guess I should have been clearer: Clinton, the most conservative Democratic candidate, finished third. Since she's too conservative for me, I'm glad that she didn't finish first or second.


Oddly, before I read through this thread, I was having a related thought. It seems to me that the best, or most interesting, outcome for you guys is to have a presidential race with Obama as the Democratic candidate and Clinton as the Republican nominee.

I'm not quite sure how it can be engineered, but it must be possible.


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## jackmccullough (May 10, 2006)

No chance. Even though she's the most conservative of the top D's, the Republicans hate her viscerally. There also seems to be a significant segment of the family values party who hold it against her that she stayed married to her husband.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Hilary wasn't pushed aside so much as she concentrated on that deer in the headlight look instead of kneeling down faster.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

I'm neutral about Guliani. I do think the 'Benito' inference to Mussolini is uncalled for. Nobody is calling Huckabee Elmer Gantry or Obama ************* Jones.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

I am pretty disquieted by this election cycle. I mean, people are claiming Hillary is the most conservative of the Dems and she is running commercials where she gives away tax payer money as presents under the tree...literally. Little gifts boxes with labels such a "Universal Health Care" on them. If that is the "most conservative" just think about what the liberal wing will bring.

Then there is the Repub show. Not much there to stir interest. The McCainiac, who has done more for giving the Dems the advantage in election advertising than anyone else I can think of, Rudy, who is as likable as Hillary, Fred, who should check into an Alzheimer's ward....

I have to just go with the guy that promises the most fun: Mitt.


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## Phinn (Apr 18, 2006)

> If that is the "most conservative" just think about what the liberal wing will bring.


History is replete with examples, none of them good.


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## marlinspike (Jun 4, 2007)

Wayfarer said:


> I am pretty disquieted by this election cycle. I mean, people are claiming Hillary is the most conservative of the Dems and she is running commercials where she gives away tax payer money as presents under the tree...literally.


It's her foreign policy that's conservative, though it's better described as neocon.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Nitts giving us the Milk. The meat comes later.


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## JDC (Dec 2, 2006)

Kav said:


> I'm neutral about Guliani. I do think the 'Benito' inference to Mussolini is uncalled for. Nobody is calling Huckabee Elmer Gantry or Obama ************* Jones.


No, just Hitlery and Bakak Osama:

https://askandyaboutclothes.com/community/showpost.php?p=680529&postcount=39

Giuliani represents a continuation of the same theme we've had for the last six years, and the inference is not at all undeserved IMO. His own children refuse to campaign for the guy. Was the same true for Benito?


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## Karl89 (Feb 20, 2005)

Frank,

I won't vote for Rudy but unless you lived in NYC during the Dinkins administration I doubt you can fully comprehend how Rudy saved NYC.

And remember its Barrak Hussein Obama - hey Jim Webb started it!

Karl


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## jasonbourne (Dec 10, 2007)

Obama win is huge. Keith Oberman's incessant belly aching that when taking into account the independent votes obama only won by 1% is actually encouraging. It shows that Obama bring indies, exactly what you need to win a general election. I think Obama will win NH, I think NH is an Obama kind of place. Then comes SC. This is where things get interesting, at the moment a lot of the black preachers have given their support to Hillary (basic clientalism from the clinton days and the Black voters hesitancy to vote for a black candidate that is not being supported by whites). If obama shows that he can win over white voters, then SC is in the bag as have of Dem voters in SC are black. Another interesting note is that Obama won the young female vote and the young male vote.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

jasonbourne said:


> If obama shows that he can win over white voters...Another interesting note is that Obama won the young female vote and the young male vote.


Well, I am going to submit, that to win Iowa, he was able to appeal to "white" voters. Also, he is fairly far to the left, I think the youngest candidate for the Dems, and working hard to make himself seem "hip". I think, given all that, winning the young voters would be a given for him.


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## Jolly Roger (Apr 26, 2007)

JRR said:


> Rudy didn't even try. How is that crushing??


Rudy actually put in more campaign appearances in Iowa than Ron Paul.

https://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/schedules/pastevents/index.html#candidate16

- Paul - 27 Appearances, 11,598 votes
- Giuliani - 35 Appearances, 4,013 votes
- McCain - 38 Appearances, 15,248 votes
- Thompson - 75 Appearances, 15,521 votes
- Huckabee - 86 Appearances, 39,814 votes
- Romney - 109 Appearances, 29,405 votes

So Rudy actually spent more time in Iowa than Paul, gets more media attention than Paul, has more support from the GOP establishment than Paul, is a supposed "front-runner" while Paul is supposedly a "longshot fringe kook", and Paul beat him by 7%.

Rudy's campaign saying that he "didn't even try" is just a lame excuse for getting spanked.



Kav said:


> I'm neutral about Guliani. I do think the 'Benito' inference to Mussolini is uncalled for. Nobody is calling Huckabee Elmer Gantry or Obama ************* Jones.


If the jackboot fits...

"Freedom is about authority."
-Rudolph Giuliani​


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## JRR (Feb 11, 2006)

Jolly Roger said:


> Rudy actually put in more campaign appearances in Iowa than Ron Paul.
> 
> https://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/schedules/pastevents/index.html#candidate16
> 
> ...


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## Jolly Roger (Apr 26, 2007)

JRR said:


> Well, good for Paul. However, that wasn't my point.
> 
> If Rudy had actually thought he could have won Iowa, his appearance numbers would be like Huck's or Mitt's. Both Rudy and McCain abandoned Iowa. Losing a race you already quit, don't really see how that proves anything.


McCain barely campaigned in Iowa. He spent almost no money there, and only showed up three more times than Rudy, yet he beat Rudy by over 11,000 votes.

Again, Rudy's people saying that he had already quit Iowa is just a cover to deflect attention from the fact that he got spanked hard and that his campaign is in the crapper everywhere but Florida.


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## JRR (Feb 11, 2006)

More good stuff.


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## JRR (Feb 11, 2006)

Jolly Roger said:


> McCain barely campaigned in Iowa. He spent almost no money there, and only showed up three more times than Rudy, yet he beat Rudy by over 11,000 votes.
> 
> Again, Rudy's people saying that he had already quit Iowa is just a cover to deflect attention from the fact that he got spanked hard and that his campaign is in the crapper everywhere but Florida.


And again, I am saying that losing Iowa means absolutely nothing to Rudy. That ship sailed awhile ago.

You are right re Florida. Rudy has bet the farm on Florida.

https://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-gopassess4jan04,0,3839260.story?coll=la-home-center


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## Jolly Roger (Apr 26, 2007)

https://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/ron-paul-gets-s.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/02/politics/animal/main3668030.shtml



JRR said:


> And again, I am saying that losing Iowa means absolutely nothing to Rudy.


Yeah, but you're still wrong. For a long, long time now Rudy's people have been talking up this "strategy" of letting all the early primary states go to concentrate on the big dogs like Florida, California, and NY, because they know that Republicans in Middle America don't want a gun-grabbing, cross-dressing, open-borders, big government liberal whose only real claim to fame is that he ran around on 9/11 looking official and irritating the First Responders trying to do their jobs.

But last night was such a blow that they've changed their tune for sure.

Last night they were so shocked that Rudy got thumped by everyone, even Ron Paul, that they've now revised their plan and bumped up their efforts in New Hampshire in an effort to salvage that sinking ship.


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## Laxplayer (Apr 26, 2006)

I was happy with the results in Iowa.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

Laxplayer said:


> I was happy with the results in Iowa.


Why do you hate me?

Edit: God, I was mostly joking but then I decided to go read his website. YOU DO HATE ME!



> Labor
> 
> Obama will strengthen the ability of workers to organize unions. He will fight for passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. Obama will ensure that his labor appointees support workers' rights and will work to ban the permanent replacement of striking workers. Obama will also increase the minimum wage and index it to inflation to ensure it rises every year.





> Provide Middle Class Americans Tax Relief
> 
> Obama will cut income taxes by $1,000 for working families to offset the payroll tax they pay.


Please note carefully, he is going to do a tax credit, i.e. welfare, to offset payroll taxes, which of course are Medicare and SS. So people already paying *zero dollars* in federal income tax are going to get welfare from the IRS to pay Medicare and SS. Please send high income earners KY.


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## Mark Anthony (Apr 2, 2007)

*Benito and the "Religious Right"*

First off - I am of Italian descent and my parents lived under Mussolini's regime and secondly I am a conservative Evangelical Christian (yes there are non Catholic Italians out there). Just needed to say that to preface my comments.

Now IMO the Benito moniker is appropriate. As has been pointed out it was conservatives who gave it to him and his own statements and book (Leadership) which I read confirms his ideology of strong government, a welfare state and private enterprise strictly controlled by regulation and the approval of the state. This is the basic definition of fascism.

As a Christian if is frustrating to see a minority of us (bear with me here) who have a strong political infrastructure including TV and Radio programming hijack the religion and support ideas that are very un-Christian. Never ending war making being the most offensive.

Most conservative Christians including Evangelicals are from denominations that are pacifist, including Baptists, Methodists and Mennonites to name a few. These groups are also not that politically active so this rogue group as I see them distort the image of Christianity and help get people like GW Bush and now Hukabee into office.

So in closing here is my take of Iowa. It is a state where there is a strong Evangelical vote (of the wrong kind) within the GOP and a state that is addicted to farm subsidies. So the fact that Ron Paul got 10% is amazing.:aportnoy:

And remember it is Wyoming next not New Hampshire for the GOP. This Saturday.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

^
A conservative evangelical Christian in Vancouver? Okay, so now we know who one of the three of them are. :icon_smile_wink:


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## Mark Anthony (Apr 2, 2007)

*and a libertarian to boot*



Wayfarer said:


> ^
> A conservative evangelical Christian in Vancouver? Okay, so now we know who one of the three of them are. :icon_smile_wink:


Three?? When did the other two move here??


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

Wayfarer said:


> ^
> A conservative evangelical Christian in Vancouver?


He's probably gay 

Wyoming should be interesting. Huck will clean up...

-spence


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

Mark Anthony said:


> Three?? When did the other two move here??


LOL!


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## Mark Anthony (Apr 2, 2007)

Spence said:


> He's probably gay
> 
> Wyoming should be interesting. Huck will clean up...
> 
> -spence


Turning the other cheek...no not that one. note: We are allowed moderately blue humor on occasion.

Anyway, I agree that Wyoming will be interesting as no polling has occurred there. I don't know enough about the demographics but it could work for Huck as you say though Ron Paul has a lot of active supporters there so I will predict top three for the good doctor.


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

Always quick to call the PC police aren't you Way? 

Yes, confession...it was a joke. I did really enjoy Vancouver though. Loved all the arts and crafts houses around our B&B.

Wyoming will span from libertarian to socially conservative. In many parts you'll see as many anti-abortion billboards along desolate stretches of road as you've seen in a lifetime.

-spence


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## AMVanquish (May 24, 2005)

While I'm sure there are many churches in Vancouver, the only one I ever seem to notice is the one on Burrard and West Georgia St.

Hey, why don't you guys get in on the election fun, and have Dion and Duceppe introduce a motion of no confidence?


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

Spence said:


> Always quick to call the PC police aren't you Way?


Hmmm? Think you either misread me or have me confused with someone else. I was probably being anything but PC


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

Wayfarer said:


> Hmmm? Think you either misread me or have me confused with someone else. I was probably being anything but PC


Yes, my mistake...I misread MA's post for yours!

-spence


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## Mark Anthony (Apr 2, 2007)

AMVanquish said:


> While I'm sure there are many churches in Vancouver, the only one I ever seem to notice is the one on Burrard and West Georgia St.
> 
> Hey, why don't you guys get in on the election fun, and have Dion and Duceppe introduce a motion of no confidence?


Yes, Christ Church Cathedral which is Anglican and a beautiful building.

Well the problem with those two putting forth a non confidence motion is that most of Canada will think they motion is about them. Two complete buffoons politically.

There will most likely be a spring vote here, though at this time there is no real hot button issue the Liberals could pounce on. Climate Change is as good as it gets and that won't be enough to unseat the Conservatives. The war in Afghanistan? Well problem there is that it was the former Prime Minister Paul Martin who without even asking Parliament (he had a minority government) extended the mission and approved a more aggressive combat role in the most dangerous part of the country. Now while Harper supports that role at least he is doing the right thing by putting any extension up to a vote in the House. Hopefully they pull the plug and bring em home.


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## TMMKC (Aug 2, 2007)

Wow! Sour grapes from Hilary: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4085083&page=1

She gets soundly thumped in Iowa then turns around and bashes the caucuses this morning. Nice work, Hilary. I love how she said the process didn't do a very good job of predicting Democratic presidential nominees...wrong! Her staff needs to do a Google before she opens her trap next time.

A good friend of mine called last night from his cell as he was going into a Democratic caucus, then sent me a post-caucus e-mail afterwards. He was floored by the turnout. Dem participant numbers were way up all over the state this time around. Again, another error in fact by Hilary. It looks as though she's lost the Independents and women to Obama...where else can she go to scrape up support?


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

TMMKC said:


> Wow! Sour grapes from Hilary: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4085083&page=1
> 
> She gets soundly thumped in Iowa then turns around and bashes the caucuses this morning. Nice work, Hilary. I love how she said the process didn't do a very good job of predicting Democratic presidential nominees...wrong! Her staff needs to do a Google before she opens her trap next time.
> 
> A good friend of mine called last night from his cell as he was going into a Democratic caucus, then sent me a post-caucus e-mail afterwards. He was floored by the turnout. Dem participant numbers were way up all over the state this time around. Again, another error in fact by Hilary. It looks as though she's lost the Independents and women to Obama...where else can she go to scrape up support?


I do believe I said here that the only thing that will stop Hil is if Oprah endorsed Obama. She did, and we see the result. I am not saying that is the only thing at work, but I am saying it is a huge thing, much bigger than what will ever be measured/acknowledged. Oprah controls some key population segments, such as middle class white women.


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## TMMKC (Aug 2, 2007)

Wayfarer said:


> I do believe I said here that the only thing that will stop Hil is if Oprah endorsed Obama. She did, and we see the result. I am not saying that is the only thing at work, but I am saying it is a huge thing, much bigger than what will ever be measured/acknowledged. Oprah controls some key population segments, such as middle class white women.


Good call...well done. Oprah has too much power and must be stopped:icon_smile_big:!


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## Mark Anthony (Apr 2, 2007)

*uh oh*

Spence,

No worries I knew you were joking, I tried to rebutt and obviously it didn't translate as funny as it was in my head. I am very easy going on things like that and most people are stunned when I tell them of my religous affiliation if it comes up- not that I am rude or crude - just very average and imperfect like the overwhelming majority of us.

Anyway hope we are cool.

To more important issues regarding this thread. End fascism worldwide and lets start with the current Dems (yup Obama, Clinton, Edwards all fascists and socialists same thing) and the ruling Republicans. Or as I like to say the Republocrats.

Obama and his "more muscular interventionism" read "kill the innocent abroad to further our Empire" or "all options are on the table" read Yes, I would use nukes on Iran.

Or Hillary who is more hawkish than Bush

Edwards - Ya I am filthy rich but you have no hope because I am so superior so lets socialize every aspect of the economy.

then we have

Huck - War on Muslims? Sounds good. Huge welfare state? Yup, let's raise taxes.

McCain - Do you want another Hitler? One issue guy.

Romney - what does the focus group say I should say?

Benito - Did you know he was the Mayor of New York on 9/11? He should actually let people know that more.

Does it need to be said?? Yes, why not...Go Ron Go.


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

No worries, I just can't read all that well appearantly 

In general I'd agree with your assessment, most of the candidates do indeed suck pretty badly.

I've said before (though perhaps not here) that I think McCain will make a strong return and perhaps even win everything.

Obama is too green.

Hillary is too hated and fake.

Edwards is too pretty and fake.

Rudy is too liberal.

Huck is too religious.

Mitt is too contrived (and too Mormon).

Thompson is not really interested.

Paul is too rational.

Etc...

McCain is (was) the establishment choice for the GOP, has some real experience and cross over appeal. Perhaps even more importantly Iraq is trending better for the near term at least.

Now that my man Biden is out, I've got to pick a horse...and I'm not in any rush.

-spence


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

What was in those organic sprouts bought in Kitts? Your in Vancouver, melllow out. The canadian dollar is trading at record levels even if the government charges an exit fee for a border undefended until one reaches Alaska. Those canadians in Afghanistan actually broke the record for longest sniper kill using american .50 browning rifles. Think how usefull they'll be helping to club seals to save the fisheries.


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## Mark Anthony (Apr 2, 2007)

*That is relaxed you should see me when....*

Okay I do get a bit passionate about free markets and limited government I admit. Didn't know there were that many people familiar with Vancouver out there, I take it all as compliments.

One thing to clear up. The Hitler remark on my assessment of McCain was not that he is the next "H" but that he constantly uses that type of remark to rebutt anyone who suggests exiting Iraq or not dealing with Iran militarily.

I would agree though that McCain has upside in regaining what was his to lose just 6-12 months ago. Not that I agree with his stance on things, just calling it like I see it up here.

Of course we need to clear up our own muddled foreign policy issues so as they say people in glass houses...


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Politics and it's participation is one of those vulgar neccessities like puking in a wastebasket. I'd rather agonise over my next Sam Hober purchase.You can get upset like Jimmy Cagney in Mr Roberts or remain stoic and calm like William Powell. Now today, I received not one, but two voter guides. Was I upset at this government waste? No, I figure with so few registered Greens ( my change to independant somehow lost) I can give one to the la Rouchies outside of Trader Joe's. Now I have to ponder long into the night if I should once again support Ralph and repudiate the evil Doctor Dean, or give the nod to the 4 other Green candidates; one an organic farmer, transgendered rights activist. The Democrats offer up a former first lady whos only grace is looking no worse than her husband's aging eye for consorts and a one term congressman who I swear is the teller from the Washington Mutual advertisements and call this change. I shall ponder this through our storm and wait for the emerging earthworms to leave their opinion writ in silver calligraphy as last testaments before the possums and skunks descend.


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## AMVanquish (May 24, 2005)

*What do you think about this scenario, and how realistic is it?*

Iowa- Huckabee has already won.

New Hampshire- McCain wins, maybe by 5-10 points.

Michigan- Because of his connection to the state, Romney rebounds and wins a slight victory over McCain.

South Carolina- Because of their dissatisfaction with Huckabee, McCain and Romney, establishment conservatives finally consolidate around Thompson and give him a win.

Florida- With no clear frontrunner, Giuliani's firewall holds and he wins.

Super Tuesday- A free-for-all, with Rudy taking the coasts, Huck and Thompson dividing the South, McCain taking the Rocky Mountain West, and Romney getting the rest.

That's a dream scenario for me, a politics junkie, but I don't know where it goes from there. (I know Rudy has the most delegates at this point, but I'm not sure if the number is enough to clinch.)


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## Jolly Roger (Apr 26, 2007)

Nope. 

Let me give you a little taste of Super Tuesday. Here's the delegate count for the WV GOP Convention so far:

Ron Paul 229
Mitt Romney 225
Fred Thompson 170
Mike Huckabee 134
Rudy Giuliani 93
John McCain 27
Alan Keyes 6


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Or---- A second major attack by Bin Laden leads Bush to declare martial law with the ominous disappearance of Frank from the forums.


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## marlinspike (Jun 4, 2007)

Jolly Roger said:


> Nope.
> 
> Let me give you a little taste of Super Tuesday. Here's the delegate count for the WV GOP Convention so far:
> 
> ...


I feel stupid for not knowing this: where do you get those numbers?


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## JDC (Dec 2, 2006)

Kav said:


> Or---- A second major attack by Bin Laden leads Bush to declare martial law


You might be surprised where that kind of talk is turning up these days. Many have been expecting an "October surprise" for the last few election cycles.


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## a4audi08 (Apr 27, 2007)

I don't think Thompson will be around after SC. It's a shame for him, as he could be the front runner right now. He had everything aligned perfectly, but apparently he doesn't want to be president.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

FrankDC said:


> You might be surprised where that kind of talk is turning up these days. Many have been expecting an "October surprise" for the last few election cycles.


Exactly. The last several of cycles. Wrong every time so far. If, by pure chance, something should happen, anywhere near the time, everyone will scream, "AHA! WE TOLD YOU!" It is amazing, give a "prediction" several chances, and their "predictive" value greatly increases


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## Jolly Roger (Apr 26, 2007)

marlinspike said:


> I feel stupid for not knowing this: where do you get those numbers?


https://www.wvgopconvention.com

The numbers aren't guaranteed to be exactly the same come Super Tuesday, as most of the delegates still need to be elected, but those are the registrations.

Voting is open now.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Wayfarer, I don't have a Crystal Ball, nor have I personally stated these will be the decisive issues. Again, the course of human events is full of suprises.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

Kav said:


> Wayfarer, I don't have a Crystal Ball, nor have I personally stated these will be the decisive issues. Again, the course of human events is full of suprises.


Kav:

Wrong thread. Do not do this. It freaks me out.


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

Spence said:


> Wyoming should be interesting. Huck will clean up...
> 
> -spence


Should have looked at the polls before I said this. I eat my words 

-spence


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## AMVanquish (May 24, 2005)

Spence said:


> Should have looked at the polls before I said this. I eat my words
> 
> -spence


In your defense, there was absolutely no polling data available for that state.


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## Spence (Feb 28, 2006)

AMVanquish said:


> In your defense, there was absolutely no polling data available for that state.


Well, it's not like there was all that much at stake either!

For the record, I've spent a lot of time in WY...not just making assumptions. I really thought Huck would have done better, but reading online it looks like Mitt made a real effort to win.

-spence


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## marlinspike (Jun 4, 2007)

Wayfarer said:


> I do believe I said here that the only thing that will stop Hil is if Oprah endorsed Obama. She did, and we see the result. I am not saying that is the only thing at work, but I am saying it is a huge thing, much bigger than what will ever be measured/acknowledged. Oprah controls some key population segments, such as middle class white women.


Zogby polling shows the NRA endorsement matters the most (far more than the Oprah factor). So the question is, why hasn't the NRA endorsed Bill Richardson yet? He's by far the most gun-friendly candidate on either side.


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## Wayfarer (Mar 19, 2006)

marlinspike said:


> Zogby polling shows the NRA endorsement matters the most (far more than the Oprah factor). So the question is, why hasn't the NRA endorsed Bill Richardson yet? He's by far the most gun-friendly candidate on either side.


Note I specifically said the Oprah factor will never be properly measured. This woman can take the crappiest book and make it the #1 seller on the NYT's list. Just takes one show. Imagine what she has done for Obama.


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