# EarlyNovemberWillbeInteresting



## Hitch (Apr 25, 2012)

Missouri's Republican senator Roy Blunt spoke for the angels earlier this week when he observed that his party is remarkably adept at screwing things up. Responding to widespread reports that the GOP has a better than 50 percent chance of taking control of the Senate next January, Blunt quipped that "if anybody can mess this up, my side has the total capacity to."

https://www.nationalreview.com/article/391116/democrats-disarray-charles-c-w-cooke


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## Hitch (Apr 25, 2012)

So we'll know tomorrow.

A few prognostications.

The Oregon Marijuanna Initiative will pass 55/45%.

Jeff Merkley D will retain his Senate seat 57/43%

The Oregon ERA will fail 55/45%

The Oregon 'Driver's Card' will fail 62/38%

The Oregon GMO labeling act fails 58/42%

The Oregon Open Primary will pass 53/47%

Oregon governor J Kitzhaber D will retain
office ................................................50/49%

Nationally the GOP will retain the House and gain the Senate.


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## WouldaShoulda (Aug 5, 2009)

Hitch said:


> The Oregon ERA will fail 55/45%


Why do they hate women??



> 3/ Will eliminate the hole for biological differences justifying differential treatment.


I don't like the sound of that!!

https://www.voteera.org/


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## universitystripe (Jul 13, 2013)

I fully expect to wake tomorrow morning with a newly elected Republican House and Senate. That translates to very little happening on the Hill for the next two years, which is fine or not depending on your view of things. The Affordable Care Act will remain intact and Democrats will avoid making any deals with the new GOP congress, instead focusing their sights immediately on 2016. 

Election season is really just beginning.


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## 32rollandrock (May 1, 2008)

universitystripe said:


> I fully expect to wake tomorrow morning with a newly elected Republican House and Senate. *That translates to very little happening on the Hill for the next two years*, which is fine or not depending on your view of things. The Affordable Care Act will remain intact and Democrats will avoid making any deals with the new GOP congress, instead focusing their sights immediately on 2016.
> 
> Election season is really just beginning.


Darn. And just when they were reducing the size of their inbox.


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

universitystripe said:


> I fully expect to wake tomorrow morning with a newly elected Republican House and Senate. That translates to very little happening on the Hill for the next two years, which is fine or not depending on your view of things. The Affordable Care Act will remain intact and Democrats will avoid making any deals with the new GOP congress, instead focusing their sights immediately on 2016.
> 
> Election season is really just beginning.


I think as some of these ACA mandates start to kick in, you'll see pressure mounting. So far the full impact has been stayed due to countless deferrals and delays. The argument against has been mostly philosophical so it's not really gained traction.

Anecdotally, I can tell you I hear a lot of grumbling from patients talking about how premiums are going up and their choices shrinking due to some of the mandates. Also too, remember that the unions have so far been exempt from the "Cadillac plan" tax and that deferment should be ending before the 2016 election.

I predict 52-48 the senate going to the GOP. Based on observation thus far, I further predict that Barry-O lacks the political practicality to understand what that means and will further retrench with perhaps the only meaningful thing coming out of DC in the next 2 years will be Sense of the Senate resolutions proclaiming that puppies are indeed cute.


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## WouldaShoulda (Aug 5, 2009)

SG_67 said:


> I predict 52-48 the senate going to the GOP. Based on observation thus far, I further predict that Barry-O lacks the political practicality to understand what that means and will further retrench with perhaps the only meaningful thing coming out of DC in the next 2 years will be Sense of the Senate resolutions proclaiming that puppies are indeed cute.


Obama will veto the puppy bill just like the pipeline bill, the ethanol fuel bill, the oil exploration on Federal land bill, as well as any attempt to lower corporate taxes (like they have in Ireland, Canada and elsewhere) just to be the petulant ass that he is.


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## ChrisRS (Sep 22, 2014)

I think the far more interesting relationship building, or lack thereof, will be between Cruz, McConnell and Rand Paul.
Its not just the Democrats focusing on 2016.


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## universitystripe (Jul 13, 2013)

ChrisRS said:


> I think the far more interesting relationship building, or lack thereof, will be between Cruz, McConnell and Rand Paul.
> Its not just the Democrats focusing on 2016.


Yes, exactly. While the Republicans will likely take the Senate tonight using their established platform, they know that the same strategy cannot work in 2016 if the past two presidential elections are of any indication.

The Republicans need to create a coherent new strategy unless a slight majority in Congress is as in control as they hope to be.


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## ChrisRS (Sep 22, 2014)

universitystripe said:


> Yes, exactly. While the Republicans will likely take the Senate tonight using their established platform, they know that the same strategy cannot work in 2016 if the past two presidential elections are of any indication.
> 
> The Republicans need to create a coherent new strategy unless a slight majority in Congress is as in control as they hope to be.


And personally, I would love to see Joe Scarborough join the fray.
Just to keep to the intent of the thread, I will be up watching the Georgia and NC senate race results.


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

^ Joe Scarborough is too busy schilling for Starbucks on his show and rocking the loafers with no socks look to care anymore about getting into the fray.


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## Mike Petrik (Jul 5, 2005)

WouldaShoulda said:


> Obama will veto the puppy bill just like the pipeline bill, the ethanol fuel bill, the oil exploration on Federal land bill, as well as any attempt to lower corporate taxes (like they have in Ireland, Canada and elsewhere) just to be the petulant ass that he is.


I agree, except for the petulant ass part. Obama will veto these efforts simply because he honestly believes they are wrong, as do many Americans (even if not either of us). The MSM will then dutifully report that nothing is being accomplished because the Republicans are being obstructionist.


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## Hitch (Apr 25, 2012)

Hitch said:


> So we'll know tomorrow.
> 
> A few prognostications.
> 
> ...


 Pot Heads win ........................ 56/44%

Merkley wins Senate race ...........56/37%

Oregon ERA passes...................63/37% Missed this one completely.

Oregon 'Drivers Card" fails.........67/32%** This was supported by Kitz, I would gladly trade passing this to dump Kitz... This was aimed at Hispanics but would have allowed anyone with an electric bill to get a Gov. ID card valid to board airlines.

Oregon GMO fails......................50/49% I thought this would be a blowout.

Oregon Open Primary fails........67/33% Wrong guess ,good news.

Kitz is back..............................50/45%*


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## Hitch (Apr 25, 2012)

WouldaShoulda said:


> Obama will veto the puppy bill just like the pipeline bill, the ethanol fuel bill, the oil exploration on Federal land bill, as well as any attempt to lower corporate taxes (like they have in Ireland, Canada and elsewhere) just to be the petulant ass that he is.


It never ceases to amaze me that people who can find there own way to toilet think corporations pay taxes without passing on the costs.


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## MaxBuck (Apr 4, 2013)

Hitch said:


> It never ceases to amaze me that people who can find there own way to toilet think corporations pay taxes without passing on the costs.


The problem isn't with how much American business pays in tax (they actually pay far less than they have historically, and less than they would in most developed nations), it's with what the marginal rate is before the myriad exemptions, loopholes and incentives our tax codes incorporate. Our marginal rate is way too high, and the opportunity for some (not all) companies to actually pay little to no tax, is way too high as well. Companies who can't take advantage of the loopholes and breaks are the ones who bolt.

You're absolutely right, though, taxes paid by business get passed along to consumers. The tax breaks, on the other hand, end up in the pockets of the C-suite.


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

^ Yes, and then get reinvested. It doesn't do a company any good to stuff money under a mattress.


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## WouldaShoulda (Aug 5, 2009)

Mike Petrik said:


> I agree, except for the petulant ass part.


Are you sure??

President Obama had a clear message for congressional Republicans in the wake of the GOP's sweeping victories in the Senate and House on Tuesday: Big whoop.
"There's no doubt that Republicans had a good night," Obama said in his opening remarks, the rhetorical equivalent of a slow clap for Republicans. He wouldn't go any further - even when pressed to put a single word to the defeat as he did when He emphasized the number of people - "two thirds" - who didn't vote Tuesday. , Obama insisted Wednesday that the message of the election wasn't a rejection of those policies but rather a sign that the American public wanted politicians to work together to get things done. Asked whether he had made a mistake by not reaching out to Republicans more in the past few years, Obama let out an audible sigh before answering. He said it was too soon to talk about any personnel changes.


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## eagle2250 (Mar 24, 2006)

^^A good point for sure, WouldaShoulda, but don't you think the President might have been in some degree of personal denial regarding the electoral message being sent and just a bit overly optimistic in his assessment of the future for his presidency? :icon_scratch:


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

^ It's called magical thinking. A trait unique to children by the way.


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## Shaver (May 2, 2012)

SG_67 said:


> ^ It's called magical thinking. A trait unique to children by the way.


errr..... not necessarily.


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

Shaver said:


> errr..... not necessarily.


I'll amend unique to common.

Nonetheless, he is clearly not someone who is in touch with the circumstances surrounding him.


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## Shaver (May 2, 2012)

SG_67 said:


> I'll amend unique to common.
> 
> Nonetheless, he is clearly not someone who is in touch with the circumstances surrounding him.


Hmmm.... do symbols have power, do objects hold essences, is there such a thing as synchronicity?


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

^ I'm referring to the inability to perceive reality for what it is.

As for symbols and objects having an essence, that's culturally dependent I suppose. As a Christian I venerate the cross, but to a bushman it is merely firewood.

As for synchronicity, this is something always assessed _a posteriori _so I'm always suspect of ascribing such meaning to things. Things happen randomly somehow. I the vast universe of potential action, there's bound to be times when things come together due to an unexplained reason.


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## Shaver (May 2, 2012)

SG_67 said:


> ^ I'm referring to the inability to perceive reality for what it is.
> 
> As for symbols and objects having an essence, that's culturally dependent I suppose. *As a Christian I venerate the cross, but to a bushman it is merely firewood*.
> 
> As for synchronicity, this is something always assessed _a posteriori _so I'm always suspect of ascribing such meaning to things. Things happen randomly somehow. I the vast universe of potential action, there's bound to be times when things come together due to an unexplained reason.


Well, there we have it. Magical thinking.


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## SG_67 (Mar 22, 2014)

^ Yes but the cross does not have magical powers. It is a symbol and I don't believe that touching it will cure leprosy. The same way as I don't believe that getting my throat blessed on the Feast Day of St. Blaise will ward off sore throats.


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## Shaver (May 2, 2012)

SG_67 said:


> ^ Yes but the cross does not have magical powers. It is a symbol and I don't believe that touching it will cure leprosy. The same way as I don't believe that getting my throat blessed on the Feast Day of St. Blaise will ward off sore throats.


Magical thinking and explicit magical powers are not quite the same thing. At any rate, the Crucifix is most certainly an example of magical thinking.


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## WouldaShoulda (Aug 5, 2009)

Shaver said:


> Magical thinking and explicit magical powers are not quite the same thing. At any rate, the Crucifix is most certainly an example of magical thinking.


Wouldn't an action need to be attributed to the Crucifix for Magical Thinking to be present??

Such as, "Last night I held my Crucifix and prayed the President wouldn't be a petulant ass in light of the recent elections, but I must have been holding it upside down!!"


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## justonemore (Jul 2, 2009)

WouldaShoulda said:


> Wouldn't an action need to be attributed to the Crucifix for Magical Thinking to be present??
> 
> Such as, "Last night I held my Crucifix and prayed the President wouldn't be a petulant ass in light of the recent elections, but I must have been holding it upside down!!"


Is this not what Catholic sky pilots do (and think)when they pray the rosary?


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## Shaver (May 2, 2012)

WouldaShoulda said:


> Wouldn't an action need to be attributed to the Crucifix for Magical Thinking to be present??
> 
> Such as, "Last night I held my Crucifix and prayed the President wouldn't be a petulant ass in light of the recent elections, but I must have been holding it upside down!!"


No action is required merely belief that the object is more than a mere object.


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## WouldaShoulda (Aug 5, 2009)

There are many crucial items facing the , from Ebola to the Islamic State to funding the federal government. But nobody predicted that the first legislation Congress would take up would be 


Republicans were thrilled. Just 40 minutes after Landrieu went to the Senate floor, House GOP leaders announced that they would pass the very same bill on Tuesday — and little surprise. The lead sponsor of the House version of the bill, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), is Landrieu’s opponent in the runoff, and the move would guarantee that he would share credit (and perhaps get his name on the final bill instead of hers).
Suddenly, the full legislative force of the government has been marshaled to try to tilt the results of the Senate runoff in Louisiana. And voters thought lawmakers couldn’t get together to do what’s best for the nation? 



The Mary Landrieu Preservation Act??

BAAAAAAAAAAAAHAhhahahahahah!!


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## MaxBuck (Apr 4, 2013)

WouldaShoulda said:


> ...many crucial items facing the , from Ebola to ...


Come, now. Ebola a "crucial item" facing Congress?

One death, and it's a "crucial item?" You must then regard lymphangioleiomyomatosis as something requiring immediate Presidential action.


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## Hitch (Apr 25, 2012)

Late November has proven to be interesting as well.


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