# The Rise of India



## Karl89 (Feb 20, 2005)

Gentlemen,

Charlie Rose (one of the few bright spots on PBS) has been focusing on India this week in light of the presidential visit this week. Really some fascinating interviews with journalists, the PM and national security advisor and some business types. India seems on the upswing and its knowledge based economy seems to enjoy a long term advantage over China's manufacturing based economy. Given that India is a democracy, is a responsible member of the international community and is making huge economic advances shouldn't India be pointed to as the model for third world development and not China? Granted India may very well be growing a few points below that of China but that "inefficiency" is the price of democracy and a price worth paying I think. India deserves a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and I believe we (the US) should lift all restrictions on civilian nuclear technology if the Indians would allow inspections.

So what do you think, I would be happy to hear your thoughts on the rise of India and the geopolitical role it will play in the near future.

Karl


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## Gong Tao Jai (Jul 7, 2005)

A few points:

-India's human rights record is not that good. 
-I very much doubt that any of China's growth is due to a lack of democracy. On the contrary, if the Chinese government would loosen up, growth would probably increase. I imagine that a good deal of the difference between India and China can be attributed to the fact that China started to liberalize its economy earlier, and has done a much better job. 
-India is indeed on the upswing, but it has a long, long way to go. Only a very small fraction of the population is part of the knowledge-based economy, or has the education necessary to participate.
-Having spent time in both countries, I would much, much, much rather live in China. 
-I would not propose either as a model for third world economic development. Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea and Japan are better candidates, although they all left third world status behind long ago. I would propose Thailand but for its corruption.


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## crazyquik (Jun 8, 2005)

I have been telling friends for years that India is the real deal, and China is perhaps a paper tiger.

They are both huge.
India is the world's largest democracy. I guess you can call it that...
Soon India will have the world's largest English speaking population.
Part of India, and part of thier culture, is already fairly Western due to that whole colonization thing. 

I think it would be in our best interest if the UK, US, and India stayed friendly. The UK and US have high technology, are affluent, and are wary of EU-style social democracy. India is a huge market, with hundreds of millions of English speakers, and some very well educated and high technology capabilities.


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## Karl89 (Feb 20, 2005)

Gong Tao Jai,

Thanks for the comments. I never said India was a model in the area of human rights but I think it is light years ahead of China. And I think China has some real structural issues in that its financial system lacks tranparency and its banks have a huge portfolio of NPLs. Sure India has a long way to go but so does China as the PRC hinterland is hardly Shanghai or Hong Kong. Eventually China will have to transform politically and liberalize but the question is can it do this without a major disruption to its economy - if the change is gradual and political liberalization occurs over 20 or so years then perhaps. But if the change is sudden and chaotic then who knows India is politically mature, China is not.

Another key difference is that India has no real territorial expansionist aims - China has (see Tibet) and does (just ask anyone in Tapei.) Indian generals don't joke about nuking LA. But maybe you are right and this will be China's century but unless Beijing makes major changes and reforms than I doubt that is a happy development for the world. India on the other hand, despite its flaws, is a welcome addition to the rank of world powers. That's my two rupees worth anyway.

Karl


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## Gong Tao Jai (Jul 7, 2005)

I didn't say that this would be China's century, just that India has a long to way to go before it catches up to China economically. I have been to a lot of places, some of which were very poor, but India was the worst by far. 
I agree that India is a responsible member of the commmunity of nations, while China is shaping up to be a ruthless bully. 
I do think the Chinese economy is vulnerable to disruption, but I don't think the transition to a more democratic system would cause economic problems. More likely it would help the economy. To give one small example, my Chinese wife and I are interested in buying property in China, but probably will not, because of the lack of property rights there. Her Grandfather recently had his house taken away for development with no real compensation.


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## Kav (Jun 19, 2005)

Ironically we are predicting new ascendancy based on old status quos.China wants to become a consumer nation on par with the US. Thats lovely, except to do so will require raw resources and energy equal at best to a second, virgin earth. With climate change , or whatever is PC for global warming triggered by our passion for burning stuff it will be anyone's guess who will be in any kind of greater advantage.


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## globetrotter (Dec 30, 2004)

I lived in India for about 3 years, as the head of an office of a multinational corporation. 

I love India, it is a very intersting place. 

It is still (as of 3 years ago) an extremly difficult place to do business. much more so than China

It is, for the most part, a great deal more dirty than China and other parts of eastern asia. 

there is a very small fraction of the population that takes part in the economy. this will change very slowly. My understanding is that a larger percentage of the chinese take part in the economy, and that mobility is much easier in china. 

aside from some examples, caste is still an issue in india to an extent that is hard for people in the west to understand. there are many social and economical mechanisms in place to limit social economic mobility

there are several very powerful, very good people in india trying to help develop the middle class. the middle class was a very tiny thing a few years ago, and now it is developing nicely. this is really thanks toa half dozen individuals who have taken this as a mission. what is amazing is that this is almost a heresy to orthodox hindus, and some of these individuals are very religious hindus. this is almost like a religious reformation. 

Indians are the toughest negotiators in the world, great purchasers, very good operations people. they are weak in sales and marketing I in general). I believe that they will develop very well in the areas were sourcing and operations are core competencies.

I would heartily agree that india should have a seat on the security council. 

I think that india will never be a real military superpower, because I don't think that that is their ambition, but they are a regional superpower, and will be more so of one in a few years.


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## AlanC (Oct 28, 2003)

Newsweek has an this week. It's worth taking a look at.

I've only spent 2 1/2 weeks in India so far, but I do love it and can't wait to go back in a few months.


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## BertieW (Jan 17, 2006)

"Few bright spots"?

Have you been missing the Monty Python special? And how about Antiques Roadshow?

C'mon man.

Javascript:insertsmilie('')



> quote:_Originally posted by Karl89_
> 
> Gentlemen,
> 
> ...




********************************
"It's about time some publicly-spirited person told you where to get off. The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you've succeeded in convincing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you're someone."


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## shoefetish (Jan 15, 2006)

Lived in India for over a year and visited from time to time. Worked and lived in China for 5 years with a seismic exploration company. Had opportunities to visit cities and remote areas in both countries. My views are interchangeable as both countries have much in common.

India's human rights may not be good but in China its atrocious - think the Cultural Revolution, Tiananmen and Tibet. Lynch mobs replace court justice as goverment officals refuse to take necessary action to the present day.

Cleanliness is no better or worse in both countries. Spitting, toilets with no doors and up to the ankle in human waste, food of dubious content (China), urinating in public, animal waste (predominately cattle) in streets (India). General poor hygiene in both countries. The list goes on (personally witnessed by myself).

In both countries the people look to the West for better opportunities/pay. The exodus of citizens to Canada, Australia, USA, etc speaks for itself. So to a large part there is brain drain, especially in India (the Indian Diaspora). The number of Indians in NASA, Boeing, Silicon Valley is high and thatâ€™s just the US.
Whenever I befriended a mainland Chinese or Indian the inevitable question of how to get himself/herself out of the country arises. Come to Singapore, get a Permanent Residency then apply to go to USA (Singaporeans donâ€™t need a visa to go to USA).

Corruption is rift in both countries. Oiling of palms is de rigueur. The number of Singaporean chinese who lost their all in some business venture in China is very high and redress is non-existent. 

Because of their sheer volume and â€œhungerâ€ both countries will eventually be economically very powerful but thatâ€™s in the future. A number of reforms must first take place. The most important would be how businesses are conducted at all levels and not just for high profile companies or government enterprises. As the present laws are very â€œflexibleâ€ its pretty much do as you will. This must be accompanied by less official intervention (jobs for the boys sort of thing). Even for an Asian like myself, born and bred in Singapore, itâ€™s pretty hard to accept or understand. I am comfortable in, say Australia, than in either India or China.

Another issue to be addressed would be the large unemployed educated. There is much resentment towards the respective governments. In both Shanghai and Chennai I have spoken with frustrated unemployed graduates who see no light at the end of the tunnel.

Much of what is really going on inside these countries is not reported or revealed so the outwardly rosy picture is deceptive. Total of about 2.3 billion people for both countries but the success stories are few and far in between by comparison. 

At the end of the day a country can only truly develop and flourish if its people is valued. For example when Hong Kong was handed back to China those who could leave left which speaks volumes. Sadly both India and China are lacking in the people value aspect, for the present at least.


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## operationexpat (Feb 16, 2006)

I have lived in China for the past 7 months and am moving to India next month.

A few observations that I'm surprised haven't been made yet:

1) India (at least the cities) is a by and large English speaking community. The lack of a language barrier is a huge asset to any foreign company that wants to do business there.

2) While China has focused mostly on FDI, the slower growing Indian government has encouraged domestic entrepreneurship. This kind of organic growth is key (I think) to continued growth. 

3) That said, many foreign companies still prefer doing business in China because of its stable political environment. It may be communist, but it won't be changing (very quickly) any time soon. The political arena in India is chaotic, to the point where some Indians I have spoken with say that if the government pushes for something, the opposite happens because of political backlash. Certainly something to think about for anyone who wants to do business there.

4) One of the biggest problems (in my mind) with China is that the people are taught not to think for themselves. Students are taught by rote memorization and any show of thinking "outside the box" is dismissed as unpatriotic. I believe this is why they will never be big players in the services sector, technology or otherwise. Educated people repeatedly spout the party line, even when it seems ludicrous to foreigners. 

5) I think that China is in both a very strong and very perilous point in its history right now. It wants to change, but change in a communist regime happens very slowly. The financial sector is a mess, but is getting slowly cleaned up. What is more troubling is the land rights abuses and subsequent demostrations and riots. Luckily for the government, they have a very good censorship program, so most of this news never gets out to even the educated Chinese. Some of my colleagues told me an article on riots in Shanwei (where at least 6 people were killed for protesting land rights violations) was a story the New York Times had cooked up to turn Americans against the Chinese. In short, there are many, many, many reforms that need to happen, and I believe they will, it will just take a very long time. 

If China can manage to change quickly enough to pacify its own people as well as the international community (especially floating the yuan) but slow enough not to implode, I think it will be both a powerful nation and a great place to do business.

Until then, I'll be in India.


Sara

"Road to hell paved with unbought stuffed dogs. Not my fault."


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## AlanC (Oct 28, 2003)

> quote:_Originally posted by operationexpat_
> 
> I have lived in China for the past 7 months and am moving to India next month.


What city will you be in?


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## operationexpat (Feb 16, 2006)

Hyderabad. One of the cities Bush will be visiting soon, if I'm not mistaken. I got a job as a microfinance consultant there.

"Road to hell paved with unbought stuffed dogs. Not my fault."


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## AlanC (Oct 28, 2003)

> quote:_Originally posted by operationexpat_
> 
> Hyderabad. One of the cities Bush will be visiting soon, if I'm not mistaken. I got a job as a microfinance consultant there.


Very cool. That's where I spent a couple of weeks last year, and will be there again in July. Globetrotter also spent part of his India time in Hyderabad, and mulberrywood spent a fair amount of his youth there.


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## whnay. (Dec 30, 2004)

_"Chinaâ€™s economic boom has dazzled investors and captivated the world. But beyond the new high-rises and churning factories lie rampant corruption, vast waste, and an elite with little interest in making things better. Forget political reform. Chinaâ€™s future will be decay, not democracy."_

___________

"My problem lies in reconciling my gross habits with my net income." 
~Errol Flynn


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## globetrotter (Dec 30, 2004)

> quote:_Originally posted by operationexpat_
> 
> Hyderabad. One of the cities Bush will be visiting soon, if I'm not mistaken. I got a job as a microfinance consultant there.
> 
> "Road to hell paved with unbought stuffed dogs. Not my fault."


sarah, remember this "Paradise Restaurant" - a hydradadi institution, possibly the best indian food on the planet. 
you are going to have a blast, and learn alot.


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## Karl89 (Feb 20, 2005)

Gents,

The debate to end all debates, the Mother of all battles - Indian or Chinese food? And to those who have been to both places what is the cuisine like in its native land? I imagine that I have had faithful renditions of Indian food in London and New York but the Chinese food I have had is probably a a very distant cousin to authentic Chinese cuisine. 

But for tonight a lamb vindaloo sounds quite good!

Karl


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## globetrotter (Dec 30, 2004)

> quote:_Originally posted by Karl89_
> 
> Gents,
> 
> ...


you can't get authentic indian food in london, unless you go to little places in east london. ditto new york, you can get reasonably authentic indian in a few places in jersey, and so-so in a place in queens.

I have had less experience in China, but I ahve had pretty authentic food, to my taste, in a DC suburb, and in a few other places, if you know where to look. But, like I sai, I am far from an expert on authentic chinese.


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## Gong Tao Jai (Jul 7, 2005)

The food in India is generally not very good. I suspect that most Indians are eating much better food at home than what is served in restaurants over there. Indian food is incredible when done well, but it is rarely done well.
In China the food is incredible. Almost always excellent. They are very serious about food. When my Chinese wife was a teenager, she and her friends would pool their resources and buy ingredients to cook a big meal together. Not the kind of thing you can imagine Anerican teenagers doing.


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## globetrotter (Dec 30, 2004)

> quote:_Originally posted by Gong Tao Jai_
> 
> The food in India is generally not very good. I suspect that most Indians are eating much better food at home than what is served in restaurants over there. Indian food is incredible when done well, but it is rarely done well.
> In China the food is incredible. Almost always excellent. They are very serious about food. When my Chinese wife was a teenager, she and her friends would pool their resources and buy ingredients to cook a big meal together. Not the kind of thing you can imagine Anerican teenagers doing.


my first reaction is to be blown away by that statement, although in some ways I have to agree with you.

you can get fantastic food in india. some indians are real foodies. a hell of a lot of indians, including the middle class, aren't. I had a guy who worked for me, who was pretty well to do by indian standards (engineer with MBA) who ate the exact same meal every day for lunch, each and every day. it was a good meal (butter chicken and flat breads) but not to have every day. and if he was goig to eat out, he would go someplace where he could have the same thing.

but you don't have the same craze over food that you have in china where people will blow huge money on food, or try all sorts of unusual foods.

I don't think that the nature of indian food lends itself to being cooked by people of status. you don't meet any men or working women who brag about cooking as a hobby - they will brag about how good a cook their maid or the female relative at home who cooks is.

one exception to the issue of food as a craze is mangos - people go crazy for mangos in season, and talk about specific strains of mangos like they were wines.


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## LabelKing (Sep 3, 2002)

China is very corrupt, moreso than most people understand or think it is.

*'Naturally, love's the most distant possibility.'*

*Georges Bataille*


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## AlanC (Oct 28, 2003)

> quote:_Originally posted by Karl89_
> 
> Gents,
> 
> The debate to end all debates, the Mother of all battles - Indian or Chinese food?


Well, FWIW, the best Chinese restaurant I've ever eaten at is in Hyderabad, India. I've never been to China, though.


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## Old Brompton (Jan 15, 2006)

I'm neutral on China and India. The jury is still out, as they say. While both countries undoubtedly are developing at admirable rates and while I would like both to prosper, I'm sceptical if either civilization possesses a creative genius comparable to that of the West. [}]

Indian food is excellent, I must admit. [^]


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## tiger02 (Dec 12, 2004)

> quote:_Originally posted by Gong Tao Jai_
> 
> The food in India is generally not very good...
> In China the food is incredible. Almost always excellent...


Sara, if this is even a little bit true, you are completely screwed


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## operationexpat (Feb 16, 2006)

Zach,
Thanks for the restaurant rec. I'll be sure to check it out once I get there. 

---

Personally, I've got to disagree with anyone who says Chinese food is better than Indian. There are a scattered few really top-notch restaurants that I've seen. Everything else, from the street food on up, is usually made with poor ingredients, lots of oil, and MSG. I have such a hard time finding things worthwhile to eat here--and it's not because I'm not adventurous or a picky eater. I've also beeen food poisoned more times than I can count. There's a chance I might just be bitter because I'm in Shenzhen. Shanghai has great food, but it has a lot of western influence as well.

I've only experienced Indian food in the 3 weeks that I was there last month, but it was a blessed change from Chinese. Plus, you get to eat with your hands 

Bottom line, I'd rather be in New York and get a taste of everything.

And I still say Thai is the best food on earth, but that's a discussion for another thread...

Sara

"Road to hell paved with unbought stuffed dogs. Not my fault."


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## shoefetish (Jan 15, 2006)

No one race does food better than another, its always down to preference. My chinese fiancee swears by indian food. She does some serious grazing when the opportunity avails.
Indians culturally seldom eat out. So what you find in eateries are pale(literally sometimes) shadows of the real thing as the dishes are catered to other than indian tastes. Saw a lot of that in the UK.
In Singapore droves of chinese, japanese, westerners fill indian resturants but indians are relatively few.
In India stay away from road side stalls or its Montezuma's revenge.

Food in China can be sketchy. It can be great but you"ll need to be connected to find the best. Once when I was in Beijing, on my way to Shantung, I remember watching this woman washing what I thought was a piece of brown cloth in a canal. Closer inspection revealed a piece of animal inard. You can bet I only ate at the hotel after that and only what I could recognise. And yes oily food is a problem and garlic. In Shantung food is so garlic ridden it comes out of your pores. After five years of that I don't think any vampire will ever find me toothsome

For all the flaws in China and India the one thing that stands out in my mind are the people. Not in the cities generally mind you (the usual pushing and shoving and rudeness) but in the rural areas. The resilience and friendliness. Used to take long walks in China and have the locals accompany me on their own will. Didn't really understand each other but got along just fine. The children we used to play soccer and basketball with. Locals standing me beers. Helping me when I got lost a number of times. Generally making me welcome. And that I miss.

For all the weed bashers, offering a cigarette to someone in China is a great ice breaker


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## Sam Hober (Jan 2, 2005)

> _Originally posted by shoefetish_
> 
> No one race does food better than another, its always down to preference.
> 
> ...


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## AlanC (Oct 28, 2003)

Here is the spread at a Hyderabadi home I visited where I was served this home cooked meal:



I noticed that the lady of the house was bringing her husband certain food items that were not set on the table. I enquired, and was told this was mango pickle. My friend and I requested some over their protests. As I was about to take a bite their three daughters all peered at me expectantly then broke into laughter as soon as I put it in my mouth. I have no idea how mango pickle tastes; it was too hot to taste. The next day I told our hostess's brother about having mango pickle. "Ohhhh," he said. "I don't think mango pickle would be good for Americans."


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## chorse123 (Apr 14, 2004)

Somewhat off topic, but I heard from my tailor in New Delhi that they're getting slammed with orders from the American delegation.


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## Gong Tao Jai (Jul 7, 2005)

_No one race does food better than another, its always down to preference._

I have to disagree, although I think the difference is nothing to do with race and all about culture.

To give one example, woud anyone claim that English cuisine (overall, not just the best examples) is the equivalent of Italian, or that the English are as interested in food as the Italians are? Of course the Englishman eating a chip sandwich and baked beans with a cup of PG tips tea prefers his meal to what he would get in a nice trattoria, but I do think there can be objective standards, and some cuisines are just not as good as others.


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